Will Moneyball Come to Pro Pickleball? Zane and Ben from Real Clear Stats

 

Using Data and Analytics to Gain a Competitive Edge in Pickleball How the Orlando Squeeze leveraged advanced stats to take down rivals DC Pickleball

Introduction Pickleball has exploded in popularity over the last decade, evolving from a casual backyard pastime to a full-fledged professional sport. With the rapid growth of major tournaments and leagues like the Professional Pickleball Association (PPA) and Major League Pickleball (MLP), there is an increasing focus on using data and analytics to gain a competitive edge.

Zane Navratil, a professional MLP player for the Orlando Squeeze, interviews Ben of Real Clear Stats to discuss how advanced pickleball statistics enabled his team to defeat their arch rivals, the DC Pickleball team, in the league playoffs. They provide fascinating insights into how data is transforming strategy and scouting in elite pickleball.

Key Discussion Points:

• Leveraging speed up attack data to adjust doubles strategy against DC (12:51)
• Using third shot success metrics to neutralize DC's strong gender doubles teams (16:12)
• Analyzing rally outcomes to determine optimal side switching in men's doubles (18:05)
• Quantifying the value of pre-draft statistical analysis (25:59)
• Evaluating draft picks based on player impact plus metrics (29:05)
• Correlating use of advanced data with team winning percentages (39:18)
• Identifying draft steal and bust candidates using analytics (43:53)
• Tracking longitudinal player progression with performance benchmarks (44:55)
• Providing individualized player insights reports (46:44)

Leveraging Speed Up Attack Data in Doubles Strategy At 12:51, Ben details how granular speed up attack data from doubles matches informed strategic adjustments against DC. The Squeeze struggled attacking out of the air against DC, with 75% of targets at Jade leading to lost rallies. However, Rachel's off-the-bounce speed ups were more successful.

By differentiating aerial versus off-the-bounce attacks, Orlando determined that tighter spacing on aerial speed ups gave DC time to counterattack. So they became much pickier choosing when to speed up, letting balls bounce higher first. This analytics-driven strategic tweak generated the extra points needed to defeat DC.

Neutralizing DC's Strong Gender Doubles Teams At 16:12, Navratil explains how Real Clear Stats' third-shot success metrics helped them formulate an effective game plan against DC's potent Jackie and Jade. Previously targeting one player arbitrarily often enabled them to get into a rhythm. But by recognizing both as top-tier in this crucial category, Orlando simply focused on consistent, quality returns to keep them out of sync.

Optimizing Side Switching in Men's Doubles At 18:05, the decision to switch sides in men's doubles is analyzed. The data showed Navratil's crosscourt dink success could pressure Riley, forcing Christian wider. This made Christian more attackable compared to sitting everything to Andre's backhand. So side switching helped create openings to exploit.

Assessing Draft Picks via Player Impact Plus At 29:05, Ben details the player impact plus (PIP) metric used to evaluate draft prospects. It encapsulates a player's total positive impact on scoring - winners hit, opponent errors forced, unforced errors avoided. Compiling these outcomes quantifies an individual's tangible effect on rally outcomes.

By ranking players on PIP, teams can more objectively assess overall ability. The draft teams using these analytics notably outperformed the league average by a wide margin. It reduces biased, subjective evaluations that often lead to overvaluing or undervaluing players.

Quantifying the Value of Pre-Draft Statistical Analysis At 25:59, the significant edge gained by teams utilizing Real Clear Stats draft packages is quantified. Five teams used this data for season 2, which Ben did not closely advise beyond introducing the information. Simply having access to these metrics led to a 68% win percentage, compared to just 46% for non-users.

Correlating Data Use With Team Win Percentages At 39:18, Ben reveals the franchise improvement of teams using his data, with all five increasing win totals from season 1. He also projects hypothetical scenarios where more teams gain access to these numbers. In the short term, it confers a 55% bump in victory probability. Once universally adopted, it evens out as all teams become analytically sophisticated.

Identifying Draft Steals and Busts At 43:53, Navratil questions whether any players were significantly overdrafted or underdrafted based on analytics. Ben notes top performers often get overvalued for subsequent draft position due to MLP success. Meanwhile, strong player impact metrics could reveal steals despite previous team struggles. He gives the example of Danel de Roa - ranked #1 in Columbus on advanced metrics but undrafted in season 1.

Tracking Longitudinal Player Progression At 44:55, Ben praises Navratil as one of the few players at the Premier level whose player impact improved every single event during season 1. This suggests an accelerating development curve compared to peers. It's crucial because as Johns notes, simply maintaining skill level still represents regression as rivals boost performance. The ability to objectively measure individual progression is very valuable.

Providing Individualized Player Insights Reports At 46:44, Ben describes exploring personalized player insights reports to help pros interpret advanced data and metrics. While most players think strategically in terms of dinking patterns and shot placement tendencies, these analytics quantify strengths, weaknesses, and development areas relative to rivals based on match data. He hopes providing benchmarks and context around key numbers can enhance training and elevate performance.

Conclusion The sophistication of data and analytics in elite pickleball has increased tremendously as financial incentives have grown. While adoption is still in its early stages, there are already demonstrable performance advantages for players and teams leveraging these advanced metrics strategically. As the arms race of information accelerates, statistical analysis will become an essential component for competitive success in the sport at the highest levels.